It is just a few weeks on from our popular ‘science summary’ (currently being transformed into a journal article), where I made the case that since Pfizer’s and Moderna’s own trial data didn’t clearly show the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines as being helpful for the most serious outcomes (and possibly even harmful), and since the pandemic has evolved the potential uses have plummeted while possible harms have crept up, it may well be that at least now the mRNA vaccines offer a net harm. Dr Joseph Fraiman, an American emergency physician and medical scientist (and lead author of one of my go-to papers), spoke recently at an NCI event in Canada, arguing along somewhat similar lines, utilising his first-hand observations and studies published in top medical journals. He has kindly provided us with the video of his speech; please find some notes of his presentation below.
Pfizer and Moderna trial data showed impressive reduction in symptomatic infections, but they didn’t report on all-cause hospitalisations, with no explanation, and due to minimal data there was also no clear evidence of a net reduction in all-cause deaths [another great article focuses on deaths].
Observational data tends to exaggerate vaccine benefits.
He noted some vaccinated people were not being classified as vaccinated, due to being vaccinated outside the system; the reverse generally didn’t happen. This creates a systematic bias which leads to vaccine efficacy being overestimated [similar problems found elsewhere].
His own study potentially found increased net harm regarding serious adverse events. For the Pfizer jab, his team found 1 additional serious adverse event for every 555 people vaccinated.
He questions why the vaccines were authorised with only 2 months of safety data.
The Omicron era (late 2021/early 2022 onwards) means there is much less room for the vaccines to be effective, with hospitalisation and deaths drastically reducing. Also, the vaccines display immune escape, and effectiveness wanes quickly.
The last serious covid hospitalisation he saw in the ER was in February 2022. Confirmed in several sources, now almost all ‘covid hospitalisations’ and ‘COVID deaths’ are incidental. As a result, these metrics are completely unreliable, yet they are used to recommend booster shots.
COVID hospitalisations among the naturally immune are very rare.
We are uncertain about the net benefits of the vaccines, and relying on observational data will continually keep us uncertain. We need proper double-blind randomised clinical trials for all-cause hospitalisation [presumably including deaths] to settle this once and for all.
With just 2 months’ worth of trial data, he wouldn’t have voted for approval, at least for those low-risk people under the age of 65. The development of the pandemic hasn’t caused him to change his mind.
Okay then.
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